D3 Men's Volleyball Top 100 Teams

Final Team Rankings

Team Rankings reflect outcomes of matches played between NCAA D3 Men's Volleyball teams in 2023 using a modified ELO system. Having rewarded points to teams winning games and reduced an equal number of points to those who lost them, it is a zero sum game. The magnitude of points for each match outcome was dependent on multiple variables, the most influential being a forecasted probability for either team to have won. i.e. A team forecasted with just a 10% chance to win being awarded a significantly greater number of points than their opponent with a 90% probability. The sum of the all teams ratings always add to 1,000 points. The distribution of these points amongst the number of teams is the indicator for strength in playing volleyball in this closed system.
  • Stevens MAC 18.91
  • Vassar UVC 18.10
  • North Central (Ill.) CCIW 17.65
  • Messiah MAC 16.35
  • Juniata CVC 16.21
  • Southern Virginia CVC 15.93
  • Springfield IND 15.64
  • Wentworth GNE 15.35
  • St. John Fisher UVC 15.32
  • Carthage CCIW 15.30
  • SUNY New Paltz UVC 15.27
  • Rutgers-Newark CVC 14.59
  • Loras CCIW 14.55
  • Nazareth UVC 14.23
  • Marymount CVC 14.17
  • New York U. UVC 13.78
  • MIT UVC 13.52
  • UC Santa Cruz IND 13.46
  • Benedictine NACC 13.44
  • Mount Union MCVL 13.42
  • Cal Lutheran IND 13.32
  • St. Joseph's (L.I.) SKY 13.18
  • Nichols NECC 13.17
  • Baldwin Wallace MCVL 12.96
  • Randolph-Macon CVC 12.95
  • Arcadia MAC 12.55
  • Lasell GNE 12.53
  • Aurora NACC 12.52
  • Dominican NACC 12.35
  • Elmira UVC 12.13
  • Lancaster Bible CSAC 11.98
  • Endicott NECC 11.83
  • Concordia (Wis.) NACC 11.81
  • Wittenberg MCVL 11.63
  • Rivier GNE 11.40
  • Ramapo SKY 11.34
  • Trine MCVL 10.83
  • Concordia-Chicago NACC 10.80
  • Milwaukee Engineering NACC 10.68
  • Fontbonne MCVL 10.59
  • Marian NACC 10.53
  • Eastern Nazarene NECC 10.42
  • Penn State-Behrend AMCC 10.34
  • Kean CVC 10.31
  • Geneva AMCC 10.30
  • Misericordia MAC 10.19
  • Baruch CUNY 10.18
  • Stevenson MAC 10.16
  • New Jersey City SKY 10.14
  • Hunter CUNY 10.03
  • Elizabethtown CVC 10.01
  • King's (PA) MAC 9.89
  • Augustana CCIW 9.80
  • Illinois Wesleyan CCIW 9.75
  • Eastern Mennonite CVC 9.74
  • SUNY Potsdam NECC 9.54
  • Illinois Tech NACC 9.50
  • North Park CCIW 9.42
  • Adrian MCVL 8.88
  • Thiel AMCC 8.73
  • Cairn CSAC 8.61
  • Eastern MAC 8.34
  • Emmanuel GNE 8.29
  • St. Norbert NACC 8.18
  • Wilkes MAC 8.14
  • Emerson GNE 8.10
  • Edgewood NACC 7.85
  • John Jay CUNY 7.74
  • SUNY Poly NECC 7.64
  • Regis (Mass.) GNE 7.31
  • Mount St. Joseph MCVL 7.20
  • St. Vincent (Pa.) AMCC 7.19
  • Widener MAC 7.12
  • City College NY CUNY 7.11
  • Simpson IND 7.03
  • St. Elizabeth CSAC 6.77
  • Roanoke CVC 6.55
  • Hiram AMCC 6.51
  • Olivet MCVL 6.29
  • Hilbert AMCC 6.27
  • Lakeland NACC 6.15
  • Wabash MCVL 6.13
  • Medaille AMCC 6.11
  • Penn State-Altoona AMCC 5.94
  • Immaculata CVC 5.79
  • Johnson State NECC 5.57
  • Mount St. Vincent SKY 5.39
  • Rockford NACC 5.33
  • Bard NECC 5.05
  • Elms GNE 5.03
  • Drew IND 4.99
  • Brooklyn CUNY 4.18
  • Lehman CUNY 3.80
  • Wilson CSAC 3.80
  • Wis. Lutheran NACC 3.42
  • St. Joseph's (Brkln) SKY 3.26
  • Wells AMCC 2.95
  • Medgar Evers CUNY 2.64
  • Valley Forge CSAC 2.57
  • Neumann IND 2.53
Subtracting two team's ratings yields the expected point differential for a single set played between them. Home court advantage is worth a net 1 point per set. (+.5 for a Home Team & -.5 for the Away Team.) For example, should a rating difference be 1.5 and a match scheduled on a neutral court, this difference predicts a 60% probability for the favorite to win a set. A team with a 60% chance to win any set will be the first to win 3 sets 69% of the time, using Binomial (Bernoulli) Probability, which assumes independence between sets, for the sake of the model. i.e. The model does not account for "momentum."

2023 TOURNAMENT SEASON

Below is the final advancement matrices for Conference and NCAA tournaments. All original probability matrices before matches were contested can be seen as pdf links. The colors of team's name on the NCAA tournament probabilities indicate hosts, pool 2 at-large bids, pool 3 at-large bids, with automatic bid teams in black.
The original Sweet 16 PDF of bracket probabilities.
To see the state of every conference tournament before any games had been played, then click this PDF . Otherwise, the Google Sheet below shows the final state of any tournament.